Beauty Contest

The famous economist Keynes compared the investment made by experts to a newspaper poll where voters choose the six most beautiful photos out of 100, and the person whose selection is closest to the average preference of all voters receives a prize. This can be seen as a metaphor for the stock market, where participants (i.e. voters) choose stocks (i.e. photos) that they believe will appreciate in value (i.e. are beautiful) based on the preferences of other participants.

In this metaphor, each voter must choose a photo that they believe best aligns with the preferences of other voters, rather than simply selecting the photo they personally find most beautiful. This concept can be applied to stock investing, suggesting that selecting stocks that are likely to be favored by the majority of market participants is an effective investment strategy.

This idea can be seen as a Meta of Meta concept, similar to a Prediction market. However, it may not work well in situations where there is a need for something "good" like an Election, as a Speculative market alone may not be sufficient.

It's interesting to see that there is a name for something I've been thinking about for a long time! Keynesian beauty contest